EgbemaVoice Editorial board on Africa’s Leadership Dilemma
1. Framing the Issue: Africa’s Leadership Dilemma
1.1 The challenge of long-tenure leadership
Across Africa, one recurring pattern is the concentration of executive power in the hands of an individual or a small ruling circle, often sustained through constitutional amendment, weakened opposition, or structural manipulation of institutions. Scholars describe a shift from term-limited presidencies toward what one calls “big men” or “leaders for life”.
Some of the mechanisms include:
Removing or amending presidential term limits so that the incumbent can run again.
Resetting the term “clock” after a new constitution, allowing the incumbent to claim a fresh mandate.
Criminalizing or sidelining opposition, controlling electoral management bodies, or leveraging foreign influences to stay in power.
Foreign leadership involvement: external powers or foreign corporations may favour stability or continuity rather than genuine democratic turnover, especially if they benefit from continuity of contracts, security regimes or resource concessions.
1.2 Why it's a threat to democracy and development
The central argument is that prolonged executive rule undermines democratic norms, weakens institutional checks and balances, and tends to correlate with weaker governance, higher corruption, less accountability, and increased conflict risk. For example:
According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, in countries that upheld term limits, leaders held office on average ~4 years; where term-limits were undone, average tenure rose to ~22 years.
The report finds a strong correlation between lack of term limits and conflict: “A third of these 18 countries [without effective term limits] are facing armed conflict.”
On development metrics: the Brookings Institution finds that countries with term-limits tend to have higher transparency/corruption index scores, stronger freedom indices, compared to those where limits are removed.
Therefore, the core dilemma: Does continuity of strong leadership deliver development and stability, or does it entrench authoritarianism and undermine the long-term future of democracy and growth in Africa?
1.3 Why this matters now
Africa is the world’s youngest continent: many countries have a large youth bulge, expecting more accountable governance, more jobs, more opportunities. A leadership class that stays indefinitely risks being disconnected from that demographic.
The global context: external actors increasingly emphasise governance, human rights, and accountability. When African leaders rewrote constitutions to remain in power, it triggers alarms and affects foreign investment, aid, diplomatic legitimacy.
The future governance challenge: with increasing pressures from climate change, digital economy, regional instability (especially in Sahel and Horn), Africa will need responsive, adaptable leadership—not necessarily static regimes.
2. Trends, Patterns & Data
2.1 Scope of the phenomenon
The Africa Center notes that since about 2015, at least 13 African countries have evaded or overseen the weakening of term limit restrictions: e.g., Algeria, Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Togo, Uganda.
Meanwhile, about 21 African countries still formally uphold presidential term‐limits.
Regions matter: southern and western Africa have made more progress on upholding term limits; many of the “backsliding” cases are in central, northern and Horn regions.
2.2 Consequences for governance & development
Leadership tenure: Leaders in countries where term‐limits were abrogated hold power far longer (median ~19‐22 years) compared to those with limits.
Democracy/Institutional Health: The Brookings study shows that nations with term limits have a median Freedom House Global Freedom Index ~65, whereas those without term limits score ~21.
Conflict and instability: Among 14 African countries facing civil conflict, 11 are those without effective term limits.
Public opinion: Support for term limits is strong in Africa—Afrobarometer data show in 19 countries, support rose from 70% to 77%, and strong agreement rose from 46% to 57%.
2.3 Mechanisms of power extension
Constitutional change: Example – a change to remove presidential term limits, or to reset the term count.
Legal manipulations: age limits removed, term lengths extended, electoral laws changed.
Weak institutions: where electoral management bodies, judiciary or legislature are co-opted or controlled by executive, the “transfer of power” becomes illusory.
Foreign entanglements: While less systematically studied, external actors – foreign governments, corporations – may prefer continuity for ease of dealing with one partner, hence they may tolerate or even tacitly support long-ruling regimes.
3. Country-Case Reflections
Here are three illustrative countries that show different dynamics of long-tenure leadership, constitutional manipulation, development outcomes, and democratic backsliding.
3.1 Cameroon (President Paul Biya)
Biya has been President since 6 November 1982.
In 2008, the constitution was revised to abolish presidential term limits, enabling Biya to run again.
Governance/development implications:
Despite oil and resource potential, Cameroon faces major governance and stability challenges: corruption, anglo-francophone secessionist tensions in the Anglophone regions, Islamist extremist threat.
Many analysts argue that Biya’s prolonged absence from active public engagement, reliance on a large patronage system, and limited institutional turnover have weakened state capacity and accountability.
Reflection: Cameroon’s case illustrates how long tenure + removal of term limits + weak opposition = governance drift, risk of elite capture, under-performance in human development despite resource endowment.
3.2 Côte d’Ivoire (President Alassane Ouattara)
Ouattara has been President since 2011. In 2016 a constitutional reform reset term-counts, allowing what many consider a third then fourth term.
Development performance:
The country has posted strong GDP growth (≈6%+ in 2024) and the government boasts infrastructure expansion, diversification beyond cocoa, human development improvements.
The UNDP reports Côte d’Ivoire recorded among the highest annual HDI growth in sub-Saharan Africa (increase of +0.017 between 2022-2023) in one recent year.
Democratic/legitimacy concerns:
Key opposition figures have been barred; the decision to seek a fourth term has stirred youth frustration (over 75% under age 35).
Although economic outcomes are positive in many respects, the concentration of power, weakened opposition, and electoral process doubts pose risks for democratic resilience.
Reflection: Côte d’Ivoire shows that long-tenure leadership can deliver certain development gains (infrastructure, growth) but also risks undermining democratic credibility and ignoring structural deficits (youth employment, equitable distribution, institutional openness).
3.3 Uganda (President Yoweri Museveni)
Museveni has been in power since 1986; in 2005 the term‐limits were removed, and in 2017 age limits abolished, enabling his continuation.
Development and governance:
Uganda achieved relative stability after 1986, some economic growth, but over decades criticisms have increased regarding corruption, repression of opposition, weak governance institutions.
The long tenure has coincided with stagnation in some areas of human development, and erosion of democratic space (for example, arrests of opposition, harassment).
Reflection: The Ugandan case illustrates how initial legitimacy and reform momentum can be eroded when power becomes entrenched, how long-tenure alone does not guarantee deep institutional reform or inclusive growth.
4. Synthesis of Reflections: Themes & Lessons
4.1 Advantages often cited — and why they fall short
Proponents of continuity argue that long-tenure leadership brings:
Stability (no frequent leadership changes)
Policy consistency and ability to carry out large infrastructure or reform programmes
Avoidance of disruptive transitions
However, the evidence suggests limitations:
Stability becomes hollow if institutions are weak and opposition is suppressed: the result may be brittle rather than resilient stability.
Policy consistency is good, but if power is unaccountable, then policies may favour elite interests rather than broad development.
Avoiding transitions may delay renewal, stifle innovation, discourage leadership pipelines and responsiveness to a youthful, changing population.
4.2 Development vs democracy trade-off
The cases show an uneasy trade-off: some development outcomes can be attained under strong central leadership, but at a cost to democratic openness, legitimacy, grievance redress and generational renewal.
For instance: Côte d’Ivoire posts strong growth, but youth feel excluded. Cameroon has long rule but faces stagnation in governance and rising conflict. Uganda shows longevity but growing democratic deficits.
4.3 Constitutional engineering and legitimacy erosion
When constitutions are amended or term counts reset to favour incumbents, the perception of “one‐man rule” grows. Public support for term-limits remains strong even as elites try to bypass them.
This undermines legitimacy and can lead to protests or instability. For example, in Burkina Faso 2014 the attempt to remove term limits triggered mass protests and the fall of President Blaise Compaoré.
4.4 Foreign involvement and continuity
Though not always explicit in open sources, foreign governments, investors and regional powers often treat long-serving leaders as “safe bets”. This can reduce external pressure for democratic reform, especially where strategic interests (security, resource access) are involved. The result is a kind of tacit acceptance that “stability” via continuity is preferable.
4.5 Implications for Africa’s future
Youth and generational change are increasingly salient. A continent where the median age is under 20 in many countries will question why long-entrenched older leaders persist.
Institutional renewal (judiciary, electoral bodies, legislature, civil service) is necessary for resilient democracy and development—not just periodic elections.
A shift may be emerging: citizens increasingly support term-limits and democratic renewal—so leadership models built on permanence may face growing legitimacy deficits.
Regional organisations (African Union, sub-regional bodies) and external partners may need to recalibrate strategies: balancing stability with accountability, continuity with renewal.
5. Conclusion & Recommendations
5.1 Summary
The African leadership dilemma is real: leaders staying in power too long—via constitutional manipulation, weak opposition, foreign complicity—pose risks to the future of democracy, governance quality, accountability and inclusive development. While some countries under long-standing rulers have achieved growth and infrastructure gains, the longer-term costs in terms of citizen agency, institutional robustness, legitimacy, and youth inclusion are significant.
5.2 Recommendations
For African countries and external stakeholders, the following are critical:
Institutionalise turnover and renewal: enforce genuine two-term presidencies and transparent succession mechanisms.
Strengthen independent institutions: electoral commissions, judiciary, legislature must be truly independent of the executive.
Encourage youth leadership and generational change: leadership development programmes and opening of political space for younger cadres.
Link development with accountability: infrastructure and growth are important, but must be tied to public oversight, anti-corruption, inclusive policies.
External actor restraint: donors, investors and regional organisations should condition engagement not only on growth/stability but also on democratic governance and respect for term-limits or clear succession planning.
Promote constitutional integrity: Amendments to constitutions must not be used to entrench incumbents; transparent public processes, debate and referendum must govern such changes.
5.3 Final reflection
Africa stands at a cross-road: on one path, continuity of entrenched leadership may appear to deliver short-term stability and growth. On the other, renewal of leadership, strengthening of institutions, and opening of political space may offer more sustainable trajectories of democracy and development. For the continent’s future, especially its young population, the choice matters.
Written by Comrade Mingo Meshach Sayami Ogumaka EgbemaVoice Editorial board
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